Conspiracy

A conspiracy is a secret plan or agreement between two or more parties to commit an unlawful, harmful, or deceptive act. The term can also describe the act of plotting or colluding in secret to achieve a specific goal, typically at the expense of a third party. While conspiracies are often associated with criminal activity or political schemes, they also encompass a broader spectrum of covert collaboration in various contexts (see the Wiktionary definition of conspiracy).

Due to shifting and evolving usage of both the terms 'conspiracy' and 'conspiracy theory', there is no consensus on which plots and agreements are fairly considered conspiracies. Another issue is that conspiracy theories are often, by their nature, accusations against individuals or organizations, which is socially problematic even if they appear rational. Conspirators, by definition, are unlikely to aid in any conspiracy investigation or expose each other. If the ability to marshal resources determines the ability to uncover the truth of a conspiracy, then a well-run conspiracy would only be exposed if a more powerful group chose to reveal it without risking its own exposure. Some alleged conspiracies by less powerful groups, and very few or no alleged grand conspiracies involving an apex group of this kind, have been accepted as true by the mainstream. Most alleged conspiracies are known from the testimony of alleged witnesses, whistleblowers, and alleged evidence. Conversely, denying the claims of these witnesses is problematic, as it often amounts to calling them liars. This approach is typically easier, however, as these individuals often have less power in society. Based on the claims and alleged evidence, it can be inferred that conspiracies are pervasive and integral to human systems, shaping societal, political, and economic structures in profound ways. Critics dismiss many conspiracy claims as speculative, often citing Occam's razor and the inherent challenges of maintaining secrecy at scale. In response, conspiracy theorists argue that this dismissal is artificially bolstered by a covert and coordinated effort by the apex group via private and government corporations, as well as intelligence agencies, acting through academic, media, and institutional establishments to suppress awareness of real conspiracies.

Conspiracies definitionally need to be explicit, or at least in law they do, if they are considered crimes. However, conspiracies are also commonly inferred even when no explicit agreement between parties is found; they are often supported by tacit or unspoken agreements. Under this broader view, distinguishing alleged conspiracies from phenomena explained by normal market forces, societal structures, organizational dynamics, or politics becomes difficult. Nevertheless, conspiracy investigators frequently point to evidence and witness allegations suggesting deviations from what would be expected under normal societal or organizational dynamics. They argue that, when considered in the totality of known evidence, these deviations indicate publicly unknown or unconfirmed actions facilitated by unseen relationships, incentives, or motives.

Definitions and characteristics

The term "conspiracy" derives from the Latin word conspirare, meaning "to breathe together," underscoring the collaborative and secretive nature of conspiratorial actions. Conspiracies typically involve secrecy, coordination, and intent, setting them apart from coincidences or unstructured events. They range from small-scale schemes to global plots and are often associated with politics, corporations, and criminal organizations.

From the perspective of conspiracy theorists, conspiracies are not anomalous but essential elements of human systems, naturally arising in situations where power is concentrated, accountability is minimal, or secrecy provides an advantage. They argue that attempts to suppress or discredit claims about certain conspiracies, such as MKUltra or Watergate, are themselves evidence of broader systemic deception. This systemic suppression, they claim, extends to the academic study of conspiracy beliefs, framing conspiracy theorists as socially deviant rather than engaging with the validity of their claims.

Critics counter that conspiracy theorists rely on confirmation bias, lack empirical evidence, and selectively interpret data. However, proponents argue that these same accusations can be leveled at mainstream institutions, which they claim employ selective skepticism and systemic gatekeeping to control public perception.

Frameworks for conspiracies

Conspiracies are often understood through distinct frameworks that conceptualize and categorize them as interrelated parts of larger systemic agendas. These frameworks provide insights into the mechanisms and interconnections underlying various conspiracies, as analyzed by investigators.

Problem-reaction-solution

This framework describes how conspirators create or exploit a problem, provoke a public reaction such as fear or anger, and then offer a pre-planned solution that advances their hidden agenda. Investigators often apply this framework to events such as acts of terrorism, which are interpreted as false flag operations designed to justify expansions in mass surveillance or military intervention. For example, the September 11 attacks are frequently analyzed as an event orchestrated to facilitate wars in the Middle East and the Patriot Act, which expanded government powers.

Hub-and-spoke model

Smaller conspiracies, or spokes, are understood as interconnected components of a larger overarching agenda, or hub. The hub is often represented by entities such as the Illuminati, the Bilderberg Group, or other secret societies, while the spokes include specific events like the Watergate scandal, Project MKUltra, or alleged UFO conspiracy theories. Investigators use this framework to connect actions by corporations and governments, such as the concealment of smoking risks by Big Tobacco, to broader systemic agendas involving knowledge suppression and power consolidation.

Controlled opposition

This framework suggests that certain dissenting voices or critics of mainstream narratives are intentionally placed to mislead inquiries or divert attention from deeper truths. Investigators allege that media figures who appear to challenge government policies or corporate actions may in fact serve as part of a controlled opposition, maintaining the illusion of free public discourse while steering the narrative in acceptable directions. Allegations against high-profile whistleblowers, investigative journalists, or activist groups often involve claims of controlled opposition.

Recursive suppression

Recursive suppression refers to the active suppression of evidence and the discrediting of individuals who investigate or expose conspiracies. This framework is frequently invoked in theories surrounding UFO disclosure, where whistleblowers are alleged to face systemic discrediting by mass media, scientific institutions, and government agencies. Supposed efforts to suppress technological advancements like free energy devices are also framed within this model. Historical cases like Project MKUltra, where classified documents concealed the full extent of human experimentation, are often cited as proof of recursive suppression practices.

Long-term incrementalism

This framework describes conspiracies as unfolding gradually over decades or centuries, with small, seemingly unrelated steps accumulating into significant changes. Investigators apply this model to theories about the gradual erosion of privacy through increasing mass surveillance technologies, interpreting it as part of a long-term plan to establish global control. Alleged conspiracies involving cultural shifts, such as the promotion of specific political ideologies or the centralization of global financial systems, are also analyzed within this framework. For example, the rise of digital currencies is often linked to long-term plans to consolidate economic control.

General categorization

Global control frameworks

Schemes by elite groups to centralize power are often linked to secret societies or international organizations such as the Bilderberg Group or the Illuminati.

Technological suppression

Efforts to conceal transformative technologies, such as free energy devices or alleged UFO propulsion systems, are often considered central to many conspiracies.

False flags and fabricated events

Large-scale crises or tragedies, such as the September 11 attacks, are interpreted as staged to justify policy changes or military action.

Economic manipulation

The orchestration of economic crises is alleged to consolidate wealth or control global markets through central banks.

Cultural manipulation

Long-term efforts to shape public opinion and societal values are often linked to theories about hidden curricula in education systems or subliminal messaging in media.

This perspective emphasizes the interconnectedness of conspiracies, where smaller incidents are interpreted as components of broader systemic agendas designed to maintain control, enforce compliance, and suppress dissent.

Systemic suppression and institutional bias

A central claim of conspiracy theorists is that many conspiracies remain hidden due to systemic suppression. They argue that media organizations, scientific publishers, and academic institutions collaborate—intentionally or otherwise—to discredit or obscure evidence of significant conspiracies. Proponents cite cases like MKUltra, where declassified documents revealed covert CIA activities, as proof of systemic deception. They allege that the documented experiments in MKUltra, involving mind control research, were only the surface of far deeper and more pervasive projects that remain classified.

Critics of these claims point to the lack of verified evidence for many alleged conspiracies and argue that systemic suppression is itself an implausible conspiracy. However, proponents counter that the suppression of such evidence, including disinformation campaigns and controlled opposition, is precisely what enables conspiracies to remain hidden.

Conspiracies and conspiracy theories

The relationship between conspiracies and conspiracy theories remains contentious. A conspiracy theory is an explanatory narrative that asserts the existence of a conspiracy, often without definitive proof. While some conspiracy theories are later validated as true conspiracies (e.g., COINTELPRO), others remain speculative or are debunked.

Proponents argue that conspiracy theories serve as tools to question official narratives and identify potential abuses of power. They claim that dismissing all conspiracy theories as baseless overlooks proven cases, such as the Tuskegee syphilis experiment. Critics, however, contend that conspiracy theories often rely on selective evidence, and their widespread adoption can erode trust in legitimate institutions.

The role of conspiracies in history and culture

Throughout history, conspiracies have played a pivotal role in shaping events and cultural narratives. From political intrigues in ancient Rome to corporate scandals in the modern era, secretive actions have influenced societies and their governance. Cultural depictions in literature, film, and television often explore the intrigue and paranoia surrounding conspiracies, further embedding their presence in the public imagination.

Proponents of conspiracies argue that hierarchical systems and concentrated power naturally incentivize secrecy and collusion, making conspiracies an inevitable feature of human society. Critics of this perspective assert that such views can foster unwarranted suspicion and undermine collective trust in institutions.